The rise in popularity of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs like Ozempic is causing a wider societal shift that is now rocking the food industry. And some are feeling the pain more than others, as people make fundamental changes to their lives and health.
In one of the most comprehensive looks yet at how GLP-1 medication impacts everyday food purchasing, Cornell University researchers used transaction records from Numerator, a market research firm that tracks grocery and restaurant purchases for about 150,000 US homes, and matched those records with repeated surveys asking whether household members were taking these weight-loss drugs, when they started and whether they later stopped. This allowed the team to compare each household’s food spending before and after GLP-1 use, and to compare those changes with otherwise similar households with no-one on the medication.
What they found was surprising in its scope: Within six months of starting on a GLP-1 drug, households reduce grocery spending by an average of 5.3%, with higher-income shoppers spending 8% less. In addition to this, fast-food restaurants, coffee shops and other specialized eateries also experienced a drop of about 8%.
“The data show clear changes in food spending following adoption,” said Sylvia Hristakeva, from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. “After discontinuation, the effects become smaller and harder to distinguish from pre-adoption spending patterns.”
And the drop at the grocery store wasn’t uniform, signaling a change in eating habits among those taking GLP-1 medication. Ultra-processed and calorie-dense foods took the biggest hit, with sweets and savory snacks down around 10%. While these are most often associated with cravings – something that GLP-1 drugs curb – sales of staples like eggs and meat also dropped.
Meanwhile, some products have experienced a growth in sales, with yogurt having the most significant before-and-after increase. Fresh fruit, nutritional bars and meat-based snacks have also become more popular.
“The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases,” Hristakeva said. “Only a small number of categories show increases, and those increases are modest relative to the overall decline.”
Meanwhile, GLP-1 use continues to rise. The number of US households in which at least one person is on the medication rose from 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024.
The researchers also pointed out that of those surveyed, around a third stopped taking GLP-1 drugs during the study period. This was reflected in their purchasing habits, too – they essentially went back to how they were shopping before medication, buying less healthy food and more of it.
This shift in demand isn’t likely to just be a short-term change, considering that researchers predict the number of Americans on a GLP-1 drug by 3035 will reach 24 million. Not surprisingly, food-makers are already looking at how to keep hold of their customers and are expected to market products specifically to people on medication.
“These medications are both a risk and opportunity for the food industry,” said Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson whose clients include PepsiCo, General Mills, McDonald’s and Starbucks, during a webinar. “Clearly, we believe this is going to be a time of disruption.”
According to Mattson research, GLP-1 users are drinking 66% less soda and alcohol, 93% are eating smaller meals and more than 60% say they think about food less.
Food giant Conagra Brands has already begun listing “GLP-1 Friendly” on its Healthy Choice packaging, even though it hasn’t changed anything else about its frozen meals. So it’s safe to say you can expect to see more superficial marketing strategies on shelves as companies try to position themselves as makers of GLP-1-approved products.
The Cornell researchers believe it’s likely that package sizes, formulations and marketing strategies will be tweaked to reflect the growing GLP-1 market.
“At current adoption rates, even relatively modest changes at the household level can have meaningful aggregate effects,” Hristakeva said. “Understanding these demand shifts is therefore important for assessing food markets and consumer spending.”
The researchers said that while they weren’t able to confirm the GLP-1 drugs were solely responsible for the drop in food spending, they believe that the body of evidence from clinical trials to date – as well as how people’s shopping habits rebounded once medication was stopped – suggests that appetite suppression plays a key role in the shift.
In a Morgan Stanley report, analysts remained optimistic when it came to restaurants and specialty outlets, predicting that these experiences are about more than basic needs being met.
“Many chains will evolve over time to respond to consumer tastes,” said Brian Harbour, who leads coverage of US restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley. “Some have invested billions of dollars in stores and concepts to serve these changing preferences.
“Restaurants are never just about the food,” he added. “They sell convenience, in the case of limited service, or an experience, in the case of full service. But they could face declining sales in the medium term.”
The study was published in the Journal of Marketing Research.
Source: Cornell University
